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An invited-only network of government (EU-JRC, US-EPA) and industry experts is closely cooperating to develop that are promotors of non-animal testing prediction systems (NATPS). Industry lobby groups have been campaigning for many years to adopt such systems and tools. The new systems will increase profit of industry since expensive animal testing won't be needed anymore.
Now, more than 50 million Euro's of taxpayers money is spent in EU-funded programs for the main NATPS-tool called AOP, the Adverse Outcome Pathway. NGO's except animal wellfare groups are excluded from this close cooperation. By subsequently adopting these AOP's at OECD-level, a certain status is given to very immature systems.
AOP is a US-style predictive system with an unknown level of predictability. AOP is based on information about certain elements of chemical action in the body like a "mechanism of action" and/or "key events. These elements, however, only show a glimpse of reality of the whole spectrum of what actually happens when a chemical enters the body, several organs are involved, communication systems are reacting with feedback mechanisms, transcription of genes and protein synthesis. Even after decades of research the precise mechanisms by which smoking causes lung cancer, DDT causes egg-shell thinning, or TBT causes imposex are still a matter of debate. AOP gives some insight but cannot be seen as a reliable prediction tool at the moment, certainly not when human bodies are exposed to dozens of chemicals per day at the same time.
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